By Karamarda Group|Wardheer News| January 16, 2013
In spite of Meles’s death and historical persona changes in Ethiopian political leadership, The Somali people’s saga is never ending. Today if there is any way to describe the Somali Regional State at best, it could be George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four (1984) novel, established in Oceania, where society is tyrannized by The Party and its totalitarian ideology. A province (Somali Region) perpetual war, pervasive government surveillance, and public mind control, dictated by a political system euphemistically (Ethnic based -federal states) under the control of a privileged Inner Party elite (The military and their Somali drudges) that persecutes all individuals regardless of their gender, age or political affiliation. In this paper, we will reflect on the failed negotiations, the change in the central government and its impact, the Somali Regions situation and ONLF. (Some of the 1984 book description is taken from.wikipedia.org).
Ethio-ONLF Negotiations
Recently the long anticipated negotiations of ONLF and Ethiopia concluded without any meaningful discussions.The Karamarda Group has offered plausible scenarios when the negotiations rumored back on May 2012. Based on the historical data and our experience in the past 20 years of working in Ethiopia, we offered our view and what might come out of these negotiations. Whether the two groups would resume talks or not remain to be seen.
For the first time in the recent Somali-Ethiopia conflict, The Ethiopian government accepted international mediation and met face to face with The Ogaden National Liberation Front ( ONLF).The Ethiopian government and the Ogaden National Liberation Front were mediated by the Kenyan government, financed by the western governments. The first meeting was held on September 6 and 7, right after the burial of Meles Zenawi, the architect of present-day Ethiopia; To spectator’s surprise, in the midst of a nationwide mobilized mourning, where everyone including homeless, disable, elders were forced to mourn and pay respect, the government of Ethiopia dispatched a team led by the Ethiopian Defense Minster to meet with ONLF in Nairobi. According to reports, The first meeting was concluded successfully with positive gesture and without any preconditions, letting the Somali people in Ethiopia to dream big and hope that the long conflict might end soon; even, ONLF hard core supporters who all along were cynical about Ethiopia started to unknot their century old hatred and start to imagine a peaceful truce.
Yet, an addiction of lie and manipulation cannot be cured overnight; there is a process and relapse. The highly awaited meeting in the second round on October 15 to 17 immediately broke down and exposed the usual EPRDF true character. Reports from Nairobi confirmed that the Peace process have been stalled or collapsed, both parties accusing one another for the failure of the talks. The Ethiopian government stated that ONLF group refused to accept and respect the Ethiopian constitution and could only talk if they accept and work within the constitutional framework. Whereas, ONLF stated in a press release that the Ethiopian government delegation did not respect the principles agreed upon on September 6 and 7, “holding of negotiations must be in accordance with mutually acceptable principles and no preconditions shall be made to negate the inherent character and purpose of the peace negotiations.”
Who were assigned to negotiate and what was the pre-agreement?
The ONLF team was led by Head of the Foreign Relations, Abdirahman Mahdi and Mohamed Ahmed Abbas, Head of Research and a number of other ordinary members to reflect representation within the ONLF. The Ethiopian team was led by Ministry of Deference; the following members were assigned from the Ethiopian government:
- Siraj Fegessa-Minister, Ministry of National Defense (Head of Delegation)
- Major General Abraha Wolde Mariam (Deputy Head of Delegation), Commander of the Eastern Command.
- Brigadier General Gebre Medhane-Head of Defense Intelligence:
- Col; Gebre Egziabher Alemseged (involved in Somalia): Member;
- Col. Gabre Yohanes Abate- former head of Ethiopian Forces in Mogadishu in 2009.
- Colonel, Mebrhtu Wolde Aregay-Defence Intelligence.
- Lieutenant Colonel Alemu Kitate-Military Attache based Ethiopian Embassy in Nairobi.
According to the ONLF press and confirmed by Bereket Simon, during the first meeting on September 6 and 7, both parties agreed: to resolve the conflict peacefully; the following points were mutually taken as an agreement by both parties for further negotiations and confidence building measures:
The holding of negotiations must be in accordance with mutually acceptable principles and no preconditions shall be made to negate the inherent character and purpose of the peace negotiations;
The substantive agenda of the peace negotiations shall include issues that will facilitate the implementation of any peace agreement and Both parties shall agree to specific measures of goodwill and confidence building in order to create a favorable climate for the negotiations.
So, what went wrong?
There might be a number of contributing factors to the immediate collapse of the negotiations; we believe the flowing points are the major elements:
- The Ethiopian government representatives were not prepared to negotiate in good faith. The delegation did not have the cohesion and structural frame work to negotiate a peace deal. Though the Defense Minster was in charge of the group, in the first meeting, he has been often observed yielding the discussion to General Gebre Adhane. In the second meeting, the entire process was over taken by Major General Abraha Wolde Mariam. We believe the intentions were to show the world their willingness to come to table, yet to create a rift and division among the rebel group by putting forward a condition that might split them. Unsuccessful in their attempt, once gain they summon a low rank member into Addis, the only one that accepts the constitution.
- Meles Zenawi Asres the most powerful man in Ethiopia has left the country without any meaningful structural chain of command. Currently, there is a power vacuum in Ethiopian politics. Meles power came through a long journey of solidifying his base of power by removing opponents. By doing so, He left Ethiopia without any internal or external opposition group. A good example was the 2000, TPLF internal struggle where significant number of heavy weight TPLF fighters were removed. The last powerful old guards were systematically removed during 2010 election through generational reform, among, Seyoum Mesfin, Abay Tsehay , Arkebe Equbay and others. As result, In the midst of political transition in Ethiopia, the Tigray military commanders are the most powerful group.
- The Ethiopian delegation team was entirely from the Defense Minister and military Intelligence personnel whom have the least interest in any change in the Somali region. In the second round meeting, the Eastern Command Genral Abraha attended along with Mowlid Hayer, a Somali civil servant in the SRS who was not allowed to enter in the negotiation room. Genral Abraha is said to be the one who rejected the pre-agreement of the negotiations single-handedly and put forward the precondition.
- The new prime Minster who hails from Southern Nations and Nationalists is not from the Tigary Region where currently all political and economic power remain on hand. As such, by many analysts he is described at best, a place holder, a rubber stump or a signatory machine. He has no political or military power in Ethiopia to implement any policy with such magnitude to negotiate a peace deal with a rebel group. Furthermore, the Somali region issues might not be a priority for the new prime minster currently as he has significant difficulties to deal in Southern Nation and Nationalities as well as the Tigray power base.
- The Somali Region administration was not consulted nor had any role in the negotiations process, in fact, it has been rumored that the ONLF made it clear through the Kenyan government that no Somali regional representative would be part of any talks. As result, the Regional administration has done every possible effort to undermine and sabotage the negotiations process.
Somali Region
The Somali Region propaganda machines have been in full gear since the talks collapsed, they are jubilant and celebrating a setback that would have brought peace in the Region. The Regional administration has given interviews to the different Somali media outlets to denounce the talks. As soon as the peace talks failed, they got a talking point, The Ethiopian constitution!! The Ethiopian constitution is not the Holy Quran; it is a frame work to provide a sense of direction, law and order. It is a good piece of paper, if it is implemented and respected. The government contradicts itself, after Mele’s death,
the new prime minster appointed three deputy prime ministers, it Is not in the Ethiopian constitution to have three deputy-prime ministers, but it has been argued by the Ethiopian government as a necessary steps to ensure stability and power sharing. If there is any sense of humanity in the SRS administrative body, more than anything, they would have done every possible effort to bring together the two groups for lasting peace. However, they mobilized by force the innocent SRS citizens in Jigjiga to show their oppositions to the peace process so that calmness will never achieved in their land; what an absurdity!!
Subsequently, in the weeks following the collapse of the talk, The Somali Regional Administration (SRA) along the military commanders, staged a public relation campaign called “Discussion with the public to strengthen development, security and good governance”; !s always, the lunatic president of the SRS Abdi Mohamed Omer organized public stage of humiliation and shaming. Read Mukter M; Omer’s eloquent tell of “The Jigjiga Desecration” and Bashiir Mahd’s “Shirka Jigjiga: Dhaqan Liinbaxaymise Dhimir dhalan Rogan”; Abdi Mohamed Omer is certainly the top Somali officials who have mastered the brain of Tigray commanders. Whenever he senses insecure, he sketch his way out by providing valuable gifts to high ranking military commanders or by creating some sort of mass mortifications to entertain his masters, create diffusions from the core of the crisis or a commotion of insecurity, and so far, his strategy is paying off. To echo few of his past grand schemes, the ESPDP’s Party Convention in Birqood, the infamous journey ‘Ubo-Quusis’, the Inauguration the !bsame Garad and recently the public humiliation in Jigjiga. To cement his projects, he will always find one or two respected members of the society such as Dolal Aden, lured by opportunistic desires of quick cash and power or blinded by ONLF hatred. These individuals, mostly from the diaspora, are well respected in the society; some of them are indeed considered heroes, struggled for the freedom of the Somali people and sacrificed a lot in the past. If their presence and involvement with SRS administration would bring a slight change in the life of the ordinary citizens, we would not be against it. But if they cannot change the status quo of mass humiliation, jail, subjugation and torture, then, they are simply partners in crime and time and history will record their poor judgment.
ONLF
ONLF has been engaged in military operation since 1994, it has reputedly indicated that they are fighting for all Somalis and are represented by all Somalis in the region. Yet, the delegation that represented the peace process is a true testimonial of ONLF organization and its representations. Though, ONLF came out of this negotiation more governmental and credible, their delegations lack gender representation (women who are the back bone of the movement) and were only Ogden clan representation; the organization faces a huge challenge within the Somali Regional communities. In the past we dedicated a full paper, ONLF must reform as an organization to be credible and inclusive. Today, more than any time, ONLF needs to review itself and take a bold action to get the support it desperately needs from all Somalis who are living under the same tyranny and dictatorship.
Conclusions:
Currently, the rule of the game for the ordinary citizens in the Somali Region is to survive, unfortunately that means; to show no humility, no respect to human or animals, no dignity or pride, to lie in public of savagery sex acts. In the case of SRS officials, just like Abdi Ilay, to sob hysterically like child who lost his father when the chance permits to indicate fidelity; of course, without Meles policy, Abdi and alike would have never hold a minor position let alone to hold a presidency. The truth of the matter is that, no one would cry for legacy of brutality, lack of fairness and lack of development!!
The Somali Region has been under the shadow of military and security apparatus for the past 20 years. The Military commander in Harare is the most influential and powerful individual when it comes into the Somali Region affairs. In the aftermath of Meles Death, the military commanders have already gained more power and are seen by the new Prime minister and Deputy Prime ministers as the power breakers. The military as always will continue to back weak individuals like Abdi Mohamed Omer for their own personal financial gains. It is clear that the spoilers of the peace process are the military and the Somali Region so called Administration. Both groups are the direct beneficiaries of insecurity and lowliness in the Somali Region. We hope the 2013 will bring peace, prosperity and good governance in the Somali Region.
By Ali Abdi
The Karamarda Executive Committee
The Karamarda Group is a group of Somali Regional State citizens who are interested in promoting Democracy and Good Governance in the Somali Region of Ethiopia and could be reached at karamardagroup@gmail.com